Stock trading robots

Signs of an approaching technological singularity: Robotic trading systems.

A rapidly increasing amount of the trade on the exchange markets are now automated. There are people that make a living from short term investments (day traders), and they complain that it is harder and harder to read the signs. And so they can no longer make a profit.

To be able to make transactions at millisecond level, the computers need to be located in the same room as the "stock market computer" itself. As there are many stakeholders interested in this, they all want as short latency as possible. To make it fair, all such computers have the same connection with the same length of the cable.

This is yet another business taken over by computers. Is it good or bad?

Robots and AI

Some people, interested in the future, can't stop thinking about the development of robots and general artificial intelligence. But I think most of them got it wrong, and that it is not going to happen that way.

There will never be human robots, except for marginal needs. If a robot needs to be completely general it would be designed as a human. But the idea of ​​making general purpose robot is wrong. People do not think about it, but everyday life is already full of specialized robots. I have several: one that cleans the dish, one who washes clothes, one that makes coffee for me, etc.

Do we really need general purpose robots? I don't think so. The day it will be possible to make "real" robots, we have already integrated our world with the virtual, and you can't distinguish between them anyway.

I believe it will be the same with general artificial intelligence. Some are obsessed with the idea of ​​making a general AI, smart as a human, that will then create the next, even smarter. One problem with this concept is to define "intelligence". There are already a lot of specialized AIs. Why should we make one that mimics a human mind? And if we create one, do we want it to be human? That means we have to give it the basic human goals, which are a will to live and a will to breed. Without those, it will not have emotions, and so it will not at all be human.

I think it will go the same way as for robots. The day we succeed, then we have already succeeded in making a copy of a physical brain in a computer. The need will be marginal.

So what about the Technological Singularity then? I don't think it depends on the presence of human-like robots or human-like AI. The Singularity is about accelerating progress, which is perfectly plausible with specialized AI.

The future of online gaming

As a generalization, there are two types of games; single player and online multiplayer. As more and more players are connected to the Internet, the demand for online multiplayer games will grow. When looking at online multiplayer games, there are two types; PvE and PvP. PvE means Player versus Environment. This is a game you play in cooperative mode with other players. PvP means Player versus Player.

There are some fundamental differences between PvE and PvP. In PvE games, huge resources have to be invested in by the game designers to create an environment for exploration and adventure. The average cost for a video game 2010 was more than 20 M US$, and typically lasts for 60 hours.

PvP games, on the other hand, can engage players for far longer time, even if the game design is much simpler. It may still take a big effort to produce the game, but there is less need for complex environments. On the extreme side, there are Chess, Go and other classical board games.

How come players return again and again, to the same PvP battle ground? The answer is the opponents. You don't like games that repeat the same every time. You want variation and increased challenges. In PvP, you can expect the opponents to improve, posing new challenges. That is why you can spend your life playing only a game like Go, and still learn and appreciate new ideas.

There is one market that has, to a large extent, been ignored. That is PvE games where players can add to the environment. I played the PvE side of World of Warcraft for several years, and enjoyed most of the time a lot. But in the end, you had to wait for Blizzard to create the next expansion. Imagine if it would have been possible for players to add content to this world, for everyone else to enjoy. The game could have been unlimited. World of Warcraft isn't easily adapted for such a strategy, though.

There are games with player created content. Many game engines allow for mods. One of the most successful multiplayer game, Counterstrike, started out as a mod to Halflife. If you look at what is happening with strategy game mods, like Starcraft, you will find an extreme ingenuity. Players have a way to use features in the most unexpected ways to create intriguing games and challenges. The problem is that these types of mods are of a temporary type. You play the game, it finishes, and the next time you start from the beginning again.

I predict a future type of game with the following characteristics, and think this is going to be the biggest genre in 10 years.

1. It is online, massive multiplayer.
2. You login, progress, save the state, and log out. Next time you return, you keep what you had.
3. Players allocate a territory in the game world and add content to it that other players can explore. That way, the basic game is for ever developing, and it will never be the same from day to day.
4. The adventures you create are your own, and no one else can modify them (unless you cooperate with friends).
5. The social aspect is a key as you will do the exploration together with online friends. Friends can be a set of people you choose to associate with, or it may be temporary groups you meet inside the game.
6. The owners of the game have to create a game server engine, a client, a starting area, and a list of flexible construction blocks.

In the 90s, I created LPMUD (with a lot of support from friends). It was a text adventure fulfilling many of these characteristics. LPMUD did not support graphics, and so it was difficult to move it into more modern settings. A contemporary version of this game type should support thousands of simultaneous players, which requires huge resources. For the first time, hardware and communication are now powerful enough.

This is the background to Ephenation.